"We are not done yet," said Mohammed Sajjad, the weather enthusiast known to social media followers as UAE Weatherman. "Winter is not 'officially' over until March 20."

He said that northwesterly winds are set to blow through the emirates on Friday and Saturday, February 21-22, bringing colder air with it. "Northwesterly winds bring cold conditions and they can reduce temperatures by up to two degrees," Sajjad explained. "Meanwhile, southeasterly winds increase heat, by around two degrees."

That partly explains the contrast UAE residents have been feeling this week. The desert saw highs of 35°C in recent days. However, yesterday’s northwesterly winds made the daytime feel slightly cooler.

The swings highlight that winter on the calendar and winter in the air don't always match. Astronomically, the season runs until March 20, but temperatures can vary, driven by wind patterns rather than dates.

By mid-March, Sajjad says, wind intensity will decrease and southwesterly winds will increase, finally pushing temperatures toward consistent warmth. He further added that behind these fluctuations and warm winters is a larger story. Global warming is causing temperatures to rise overall, but natural cycles complicate the picture.

Sajjad points to the El Niño and La Niña patterns, which are dictated by sea water temperatures. When La Niña activates, cold increases and rain decreases. When El Niño takes over, cold decreases and rainfall increases- as the Arabian Peninsula experienced in 2023-2024, when almost every month brought rainfall.

This year was supposed to be La Niña. Instead, February has been unusually warm. "The system is going to neutral," Sajjad noted. "It might move to El Niño."

That neutral shift carries implications. In coming months, this typically means increased rainfall. "We're expecting rain in March and April," Sajjad said.

For now, the message is simple: winter hasn't clocked out. Friday's northwesterly winds will remind residents that March 20 is still a month away and until then, the UAE's weather will keep everyone guessing.